SCC Preview: Johnson returns home to California

Will Jimmie Johnson give the other teams hope or take some away this Sunday at the Auto Club Speedway? It's still very early in the 2009 Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship, but the three-time defending champ already is facing another "statement" race.

After finishing fourth in the Chase opener in New Hampshire, Johnson scared everybody with his dominating Monster Mile victory and, without saying a word, you could hear the competition going, "Oh man, not again." If he had backed that up with a win or top-3 performance at Kansas, Johnson would have further demoralized his competition. Instead, he finished ninth, so the pack just in front and behind him in the points race gained a little confidence.

Now, Johnson returns to his native California hunting for his third straight win in the season's second Fontana race. He needs another trip to Victory Lane to prove he is, as Mark Martin has called him, Superman when the championship battle comes around each year. Johnson also would like to prove the Lowe's Chevrolet team can turn it on at will and, after last week, dispel any thought that he can be beaten by mere mortals. He and crew chief Chad Knaus know the stakes this week, and I'm betting they'll be faster than a speeding bullet.

If Johnson gets pressured in the Pepsi 500, it likely will come from inside his own organization with the likes of Martin and Jeff Gordon, from someone with the same engine under the hood (such as Tony Stewart), or from Roush Fenway Racing.

Gordon's DuPont Chevy could be a major foe Sunday. He has conquered the Auto Club Speedway three times and was the runner-up this past February. This year, Gordon also finished second in both races at Michigan, the sister track to Fontana. Martin won the first race at Michigan and was running up front when he ran out of gas in the second one. Stewart came home eighth in the year's first race in California and was top-10 material at Michigan. He has the same stuff under the hood as the Hendrick gang, and he proved this past week that he could rise to the occasion in the playoff and beat those guys with their own stuff.

We all know how Roush Fenway has struggled for much of the season on the intermediate 1½-mile tracks, but the teams never really lost their touch on the 2-mile ovals. Matt Kenseth won the first race at Fontana this winter, with Greg Biffle fourth and Carl Edwards seventh. At Michigan, Edwards finished fourth in both races, with Biffle fifth in the first race and Jamie McMurray and David Ragan top-15 as well.

In the midpack of the ESPN Stock Car Challenge, you should be able to find some big help Sunday. Not only are Biffle and Kenseth in that group but so are Kyle Busch, who should be good for a top-10 run, and David Reutimann, who's coming off a strong eighth-place finish at Kansas. This is also where you'll find Brian Vickers, who dropped 0.5 to 20.6 after he blew an engine this past week. He was 12th in this race a year ago and 10th in February. At Michigan this season, he was ninth in June and the winner in August.

When we set up our SCC teams, we all are looking for that driver with a low value who has a shot to finish pretty high up in the running order, at least top-20. Dale Earnhardt Jr. could be that guy this week. His value has dropped to 17.4, but in leading 41 laps this past week, he showed some life. Junior finished 13th and third at Michigan. There could also be a couple of "Davids" among the Goliaths. David Ragan has had a tough year, yet his record at California isn't bad for a driver valued at 15.1. In the past four races on the 2-mile track, he has finished between 12th and 17th. David Stremme, who has the same value, was 13th in the first race at Fontana this year and 13th in the second race at Michigan.

Big Bucks (SCC Value 22.0 and up)

There's no out and out "bow wow" in the group, but you have some choices you might have to live with pretty much the rest of the season. The four highest-valued drivers -- Johnson, Stewart, Gordon and Martin -- are all over 23.6. All have a shot to run at least top-5, but is this the time to drop down a little lower in this group so you can balance out your team without going with a crazy floor pick? Juan Pablo Montoya (22.8) has been solid, and I think this is a place Edwards (22.2) will get to the front this Sunday.

Serious Coin (SCC Value 19.0 to 22.0)

Biffle (22.0) looked sharp this past weekend and should again in Fontana. In this group, I also like Kyle Busch (21.2), Kenseth (20.8) and Vickers (20.6). Two other possible worthies in this category are Clint Bowyer (20.9) and Reutimann (21.0).

Budget Boys (SCC Value 13.0 to 19.0)

Near the top of this group, Joey Logano (18.2) might be of help, as could Kevin Harvick (18.2). A little further down, Dale Jr. (17.4) and McMurray (17.5) are worth some consideration. If you need to go even lower, look at Stremme (15.1) and Ragan (15.1).

Debit ... not credit

In the 22.0-and-up category, everyone looks in pretty good shape, but with Ryan Newman at 22.1, I probably would stay away from him because you can drop down to Biffle (22.0) or Kenseth (20.8) and be in better shape. They will be better buys, in my opinion, as will probably some others under Newman, such as Kyle Busch, Reutimann and Vickers. I'm also not super in love with Stewart (24.0). It's not because he won't run well -- because he probably will -- but he's really expensive, and you can afford only one of those high-dollar guys. Until proven otherwise, would we not all agree Johnson is "the man"? In the 19.0-22.0 group, Jeff Burton (19.5) just hasn't done much lately, and I'm not sure teammate Casey Mears (19.2) justifies spending that kind of money for maybe a top-20 performance. I think you could make the same argument for Marcos Ambrose (20.3), who was 22nd in the first race at California and didn't even finish top-25 in either Michigan shootout.

Guru Garrow's gang

I went down in flames last week with 557 points. Johnson and Martin didn't quite run up to form. Newman did not run as well as the Sunday prerace hype had him running. Dale Jr. led 41 laps and disappeared. Floor pick Bill Elliott held his own, finishing 19th and getting me 106 points. I'll try to redeem myself this week with my preliminary, pre-Sunday chat team almost completely redone. I'm going to keep Johnson, but, to get a little balance on my team, I'm trading Martin to drop down, taking Biffle and Kenseth. I added Harvick and Stremme as the "floor."

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.